Fielder signs on with Tigers

“Buchholz, who starts a four-year, $29.94 million deal this season, also moved into a new house in Arizona this winter with his wife and daughter. That enabled him to spend time working out with Dustin Pedroia.”

Um, yes please?

In a season of disappointing results and more disappointing lack of leadership, Pedroia stood as a long beacon of nightly effort paired with results (Tek gives it his all, but the results left the building many a moon ago).

Last season, Jacoby Ellsbury was coming off a frustrating 201o season which he missed almost entirely because of various nagging rib injuries and misdiagnoses.  Some backhanded criticism by Kevin Youkilis for rehabbing away from the team and questionable shots at the team’s medical staff and Ellsbury was in the Nation’s doghouse–a perceived pretty boy who couldn’t or wouldn’t play through pain and was playing below his physical gifts.  That winter he worked out with Pedey in Arizona and proceeded to put up an MVP caliber season–an award most certainly lost by the team’s collapse rather than Justin Verlander being more deserving.

Let’s hope Buchholz, who has a stated goal of reaching 200 innings this season for the first time in his career, is the 2012 recipient of Pedey’s pixie dust.

Tim Wakefield will announce his retirement at 5 p.m. today at JetBlue Park.

Wakefield, 45, was 200–180 with a 4.41 ERA in 627 appearances in his 19-year career. The Florida native spent the final 17 seasons with the Red Sox, going 186–168 with a 4.43 ERA over 590 games. He is third in team history for victories, trailing only Cy Young and Roger Clemens, who each had 192.

Wakefield’s 17 seasons with the Sox were the most for an active player. In team history, only Carl Yastrzemski (23), Ted Williams (19) and Dwight Evans (19) played more years with the team.

Wakefield leaves the Red Sox having pitched the most innings (3,006) and made the most starts (430) in team history. He was second in games pitched (590) and strikeouts (2,046).

He also allowed the most home runs (401), walks (1,095), hits (2,931), wild pitches (125), and hit batters (176) in team history and had the most losses.

Wakefield, the oldest player in baseball last season, was 7–8 with a 5.12 ERA in 33 games 23 of them starts. He pitched 154.2 innings.
[1] [1] [But he took umpteen tries to win his 200th game and Francona seemingly kept putting him out there for this sole purpose as Rome burned.]

The knuckleballer joined Walter Johnson as the only two pitchers in American League history with at least four wins and 125 or more innings in 17 consecutive seasons.

Wakefield was an All-Star for the first time in 2009 and was 11–5 with a 4.58 ERA in 21 starts that season. But he was 11–19 with a 5.22 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in the two years that followed. He was 1–5 with a 5.08 ERA in his final 11 games last season.

Wakefield won his 199th game on July 24. His bid for 200 victories became painful as he failed to record a victory in nine consecutive starts. The 200th victory finally came on Sept 13 at Fenway Park against the Blue Jays.

Wakefield received a standing ovation from the crowd.

But it was clear that his effectiveness as a pitcher was coming to an end. Wakefield was 2–5 with a 5.55 ERA after the All-Star break and had a 6.30 ERA in his final four starts, contributing to the team’s historic September collapse.

There was speculation that Wakefield would retire after the season, having attained one of the milestones he coveted. But during the final week of the season, he told Fox Sports that the fans “deserved” to see him break the team record.

The Red Sox did not feel that way. New general manager Ben Cherington steadfastly said throughout the winter that he respected Wakefield, but had to be honest with him about his chances of making the team. As such, the Red Sox were not willing to offer him a major league contract.

In November, agent Barry Meister said if the Sox don’t bring Wakefield back, “he’s going to win 15 games somewhere else.”

“Tim’s going to play again, absolutely,” Meister said. “I hope it’s with Boston and I’ve expressed that to them. I feel strongly that he can pitch and pitch effectively whether it’s in a starter’s role or in that hybrid role. I just think if he didn’t pitch for the Boston Red Sox it would be a shame.”

Wakefield reiterated that in December, saying he “very much wanted to play for the Red Sox” and was preparing himself physically for the coming season.

But the Red Sox did not budge. In the end, it appears, Wakefield preferred retirement to the idea of trying to catch on with another team.

With Wakefield retiring, the question now will be what transpires with catcher Jason Varitek, who is in much the situation. Varitek, 39, has said he wants to return to the team but the Sox have not offered him a major-league contract

The team captain, Varitek hit .221 with a .300 on-base percentage last season.

There will be more coverage of Wakefield’s retirement following his press conference.

Three years ago this month, the Yankees travelled to Boston for a five-game series which included a makeup game for a previous rain out.  The Red Sox had jumped out to a 53–33 record at the All Star break in 2006 marking their best first half record in Terry Francona’s tenure providing a three game cushion over the Yankees. However, the Red Sox stumbled to a 16–17 record over the first six weeks of the second half while the Yankees surged to a 20–12 record and entered the series with a 1.5 game lead.

The series’ length amplified its importance but with  home field advantage on their side, Boston fans were optimistic their team, at worst, would win the series 3–2 and emerge just a half game back in the division.  Realistically, this might have been wishful thinking as Boston entered the series entirely flat.  The Sox had won just three of the ten series they had played in the second half.

Fast forward three years and the Red Sox, coming off a first half performance that spotted them a 3 game lead over the Yankees at the All Star break, have stumbled to an 8–10 record thus fan in the second half.  The Yankees, conversely, have sprinted to a 14–5 second half record to erase the three game division deficit they faced at the break and they currently hold a 2.5 game lead in the AL East.  Sound familiar? 2 
2 Testing a second and slightly longer sidenote on this post. Realistically, this might have been wishful thinking as Boston entered the series entirely flat.  The Sox had won just three of the ten series they had played in the second half.

As we all know, the Yankees bludgeoned the Red Sox in that five-game series by a combined score of 49–26 effectively crippling Boston’s psyche and their chances at winning the division.  Not only did Boston go into a free fall after the drubbing by losing 12 of their next 16 games, they finished third in the division behind the Blue Jays.  Although it won’t be the Blue Jays, there’s a very real chance that if Boston is hammered by the Yankees this weekend, they will again finish third in the division as the Rays have served notice that they’re making another run.

The Red Sox pathetic and heartless display in Tampa Bay should serve notice to Sox fans that if the team lays an egg in New York this weekend, the season is most likely over.  That’s a strong statement with another six weeks of baseball remaining but what player on this team has displayed a fighting spirit?  Do you really want to peg a late season push on the health of Dice-K and Tim Wakefield’s return?  The John Smoltz expirament will likely be shutdown if he doesn’t turn things around in his next couple of starts.  Jason Bay looks like he’ll be fortunate to reach half of his production from the first half.  Mike Lowell has served the Sox well but he’s aging in dog years and essentially a cripple who now forces Francona to choose between placing a competent bat or  glove, but not both, in the lineup at third base.  Shortstop is a black hole (interesting aside–Nick Green scored the winning run for the Yankees in the final game of the five game massacre).  J.D. Drew…enough said.

Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis are the only players who seem visibly upset about losing.  That’s not to say the others don’t care but I’m just left wondering if Theo has gone a little too far in purging the Red Sox of the resilient personalities that populated the clubhouse during the “idiot” years.  Wouldn’t shots of Jack Daniels before games help this group?  They could use “Cowboy Up” rally cry.  Would this team ever muster the pride to fight back in game 4 of an ALCS they were losing 3–0?

It may be that a series with their not-so-bitter-anymore rivals is just what the Sox need to regain their non-existent pulse.  But barring the unforeseen, I’m bracing myself for deja vu all over again.

Certainly, acquiring Roy Halladay would have accomplished just that simply due to the magnitude of such an acquisition as well as the recognition that a top three of Halladay, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester would put the Sox in a situation where merely making the post season would position them well for winning a third World Series in six seasons.  Outside of acquiring one of the league’s top starters, the most glaring need remained a potent bat for Terry Francona to drop in the middle of the lineup to reinforce the wilting offense.

By early afternoon last Friday, word leaked out that the Red Sox were on the verge of acquiring Victor Martinez from Cleveland—a versatile switch hitter capable of catching and playing first base and a player known as a positive clubhouse presence.  In Martinez’ first two games with the Red Sox over the weekend, he batted third going 6-for-11 with 5 RBI.  Martinez played first base on Saturday and caught during Sunday’s 18 run explosion.  The Boston offense will be most potent when Martinez catches as he will be replacing a far weaker hitter in Jason Varitek, but the strongest defensive team will feature Martinez at first base, Kevin Youkilis at third base with Varitek catching since Mike Lowell’s defense has so badly regressed as a result of his degenerative hip.  Suffice it to say, Martinez is the flexible type of player that Francona and the Red Sox love and Tito will have plenty of options and can adjust his lineup to best match up to the competition on a given night.

There are deeper implications of the trade, however.  With Martinez now penciled into the three hole every day, Youkilis will return to the cleanup spot he occupied from the Manny Ramirez trade at last season’s deadline up until he was forced to move to the third spot at the peak of David Ortiz’ struggles earlier this season.  Ortiz will slide into the fifth spot followed by Jason Bay in the six hole.  In doing this, Francona will alternate lefties and righties—a strategy he loves to employ to mitigate vulnerability to opposition bullpen moves in later innings.  This may all seem like an inconsequential shuffling of the lineup to accommodate the new acquisition but the numbers tell a different story:

In each instance, this one addition to the lineup allows prior Red Sox hitters to move back into the batting order spots in which they’ve excelled.  Digging even deeper, the reliability Jacoby Ellsbury has brought to the top of the lineup over the last two weeks has also been a stabilizing force for the lineup.  When Ellsbury was dropped in the order, Dustin Pedroia and J.D. Drew each took turns in the leadoff spot.  Here are Pedroia’s numbers:

Drew has not thrived in any particular role this season (to his credit, he’s moved around the batting order more than anyone and has not complained) so I won’t post his statistical breakdown but his worst numbers by far were posted in the leadoff spot where he batted .190 and posted an OBP of just .299—abysmal for any batter but especially a leadoff man.

It should also be noted that the vast majority of Martinez’ plate appearances have come as the third hitter, a role with which he is familiar and has enjoyed success.  He certainly isn’t being asked to take on an unfamiliar task for the benefit of the other Red Sox batters.

This is an example of how a single move can have far reaching implications up and down a lineup card.  If yesterday’s 18 run explosion is an indication, the Red Sox went a long way in solving their offensive woes with the Martinez trade by adding a stellar bat and allowing their existing hitters to settle back into the roles in which they thrive.

Just the revelation that Japan has a national football team is startling and leaves me brimming with questions.  Do they have to recruit sumo wrestlers to play line?  Do they deliver audibles in haiku form?  Are their plays more reliable and better constructed than American ones?  Does their offense depend on making surprise attacks and cheap shots that catch the enemy off guard?  Certainly they must have sideline camera policies that would earn Bill Belichick’s approval?  Is the stadium required to stop selling saké prior to the 4^th quarter?  In honor of Notre Dame, did the Japanese team install a motivational sign in their locker room encouraging the team to “Pray Rike a Champion Today?”  Will NFL teams soon be engaging in bidding wars for players developed in Japan?  A quick search of Japan American Football Association shows it has been in existence since 1934 and its league championship game is called the Rice Bowl.  I’m not kidding.

This idea of a foreign football association is actually a fascinating concept, much more intriguing than NFL Europe.  It would be terrific if other countries could follow Japan’s lead and begin to develop their own American-football programs.  Imagine if other countries were one day competitive enough to stage a world cup similar to the soccer version.  Seeing countries clash head to head on the gridiron would be enjoyable on multiple levels.  The U.S. would essentially play the dominant role that Brazil does in soccer.  The Kenyan teams would be lightning fast with great stamina, the Eastern European and Russian teams would play a rugged smash-mouth style, and I imagine Sweden would feature a more graceful, pass-happy offense.  Cuba’s playing style (and equipment) would be straight out of 1959.  New Zealand and South Africa could pretend it is rugby and field potent squads themselves and perhaps figure out just why it is this game requires pads.  France’s uniforms would, of course, be all white.

In the actual game, the Aging Irish beat Japan 19–3 behind the leadership of Lou Holtz.  While gamedays are always better when Notre Dame loses, we can at least be thankful the matchup did not provoke any international incidents.  Though Notre Dame may have gone overboard by starting a quarterback named Rice, it was a fitting touch in this exhibition between foreign teams and players to feature a football coach who needs a translator for his own team.  Fortunately, the Japanese team and media did not take offense at his spitting on them and understood he does it to everybody (and he in turn forgave the media for repeatedly calling him Rou Hortz–he thympathithed really).  There is no word if Mark May and Reese Davis were on hand to needle the Japan team and talk about how they just won’t be able to stand up to China’s aerial assault.  On a shocking note, two-time Heisman trophy winner and former Detroit Lion Ron Powlus was left off the Notre Dame roster.  He must have been too busy teaching current Irish super star Jimmy Clausen everything he knows.

Congratulations are due to all the Aging Irish players who returned to the field and defeated a team of far younger players–a significant feat regardless of their country of origin.  Now that they have proven themselves superior to Japan, perhaps Notre Dame can take the next step and overthrow the mighty likes of Syracuse and Air Force.  Hopefully, this event will be a step forward for American football in Japan and around the world.  And if there ever is day when Japanese football challenges the U.S. for dominance as they’re currently doing in baseball, that will truly be a historic event.

Despite the disturbing shortcomings of the bullpen in recent weeks, epitomized in two epic meltdowns, pitching continues to be this team’s foundation.  Building the team around pitching was, after all, Theo Epstein’s plan during the offseason turning to rehabbing veterans Brad Penny, John Smoltz and Takashi Saito with low-risk, high-reward contracts after failing to sign Mark Teixeira.  Despite the ugly 1–5 start to the second half, the pitching has posted an ERA of 4.22 following the break so far, only slightly higher than the team’s 4.07 first half ERA which ranked second in the American League.

Boston can win with this pitching staff assuming there are no catastrophic injuries to Josh Beckett, Jon Lester or Jonathan Papelbon and the remaining pieces simply hold their own.

The bats, however, appear to be a different story.  This might seem like a statement of the obvious as the offense has limped out to an anemic second half start ranking last in the American League in runs, hits, RBI, batting average, total bases, on base percentage, and slugging percentage.  With the exception of Mike Lowell, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis, the rest of the Red Sox batters have combined for 6 runs, 10 hits and 4 RBI in 111 at bats over six games amounting to a .090 BA, .172 OBP and .171 SLG.  That’s two-thirds of the lineup when you consider that Lowell is now a part-time player.

Ok, so one of the losses came against Roy Halladay.  Another came against Kevin Millwood who doesn’t strike fear in the hearts of opposing lineups but is a steady veteran nonetheless.  But Marc Rzepczynski, Tommy Hunter and Dustin Nippert (combined career mark of 10–12 with an ERA around 6) won the other three games, each surrendering just a single earned run in their dominating efforts.

Much has been made of the theory that Kevin Youkilis’ intense style of play wears him down throughout the season.  It has also been noted that Lowell is a notorious first half player who then struggles in the second half.  The same has been said about Brad Penny.  Could it be that the Red Sox’ struggles over the last week (and really dating back to the devastating bullpen implosion in Baltimore) is an accentuated sampling of the roster’s historic second half numbers?

With this in mind I looked at each Red Sox hitter who had at least 1,000 at bats over the prior three seasons (2006–2008) and tracked performance pre and post all star break.  The results are below with the darkness of the red or blue indicating the degree to which that player heated up or cooled off in the second half.

(For AB/HR and AB/RBI, the percentages make it seem backwards since you want these numbers to shrink unlike the other stats.  But I used a formula where negative always represented a decline and vice versa.)

The results are highly varied.  Youkilis, Bay and Lowell indeed tend to cool off after the break to varying extremes but some players, led by David Ortiz, pick up their performance.  New acquisition Adam LaRoche’s numbers back up his reputation as a second half player and the overall weighted average for the players assessed shows a slight up tick in offense.

The lesson to be learned here, other than the fact that it’s necessary to remain even keeled even when the team looks its worst, is that the knee jerk reaction to the hideous offensive display of the past week is to demand a trade to address whatever appears to be the immediate need.  The Sox front office, known as pioneers in sabermetrics and reliance upon statistical facts over emotional whims (just ask Grady Little) doesn’t see Jason Bay’s plummeting average and panic.  Sure, they’d prefer to see him hitting but they view the team through a (much more complex and layered) lens such as this table.  It likely explains why they weren’t in a rush to resign Bay when his stock was at its peak as he mashed his way through the early months of the season.  It may also explain their loyalty to Ortiz amidst his struggles knowing how his performance trends upwards as the season progresses.  Finally, it helps explain the LaRoche trade.  With Lowell and Youkilis proving the most extreme examples of first half performers, LaRoche slides in as a player who tends to get hot later in the year and in addition to hopefully hitting, can potentially help Youkilis and Lowell wear down less drastically by providing extra breaks.

This is the same Red Sox team that started the first half 2–6 with a bevy of one-run losses only to recover and race out to the best record in the American League.  While there certainly are some red flags (something about this season feels like 2006) and the trading deadline could still see the Sox make a significant move, let’s take a deep breath and relax about the offense for now.

The site obviously is not serious (I hope) and even contains a disclaimer that the rankings have nothing to do with which are the best sports cities, it just looks at championships and the rate at which each city’s teams have won them.  But it does lead me to think of publications such as Sporting News that do routinely rank the best sports cities.  They usually formulate their rankings using variables like championships, number of playoff appearances, win-loss percentage, and attendance.  Despite any other intangibles they may throw into the calculations, it will always be the case that places whose teams have had recent success will come out at the top.  I do not think that is a valid determination of the actual best sports cities.

Obviously, when a franchise is winning, fan interest is high (unless you are in Atlanta).  So in any city, the number of playoff appearances, winning percentage and attendance will all be directly correlated.  In order to find the truly great sports towns, any sort of calculation should reward the places where attendance and fan interest remains high even when the local teams stink (sorry Oakland and Pittsburgh).  In the Sporting News’ rankings, for example, Boston has been named the top city four out of the past seven years, thanks to the Patriots and Red Sox success this decade, and the Celtics title last season.  During the city’s championship drought during the 1990’s, however, it was never anywhere near the top of the list.  Has Boston really only become a good sports town recently?  If Pittsburgh is ranked at the top this year, does that mean it is a better sports city now than it has ever been before?

Off the top of my head, I think a better formula should go something like this:

1. For all the professional franchises in each city, find their best and worst regular seasons in the past ten years.
2. For each selected season, separately calculate the following:

[(X÷Y)×Z] ÷ A

X = Team’s local television ratings for selected season

Y = League average television ratings per market

Z = Average attendance by % of stadium capacity

A = Team’s winning percentage in that season

1. Average the results for the team’s two seasons.
2. Average the final results for all the teams in the city.  Higher scores are better.

A formula like this could fairly judge fan interest for teams that have been consistently good or bad over the time frame chosen (ten years in this case) like the Red Wings and Pirates, and average out teams that have had radical reversals in fortune like the Celtics who bought their way from worst to first during 2007–2008.  If wanted, a third median season could be added to the formula to balance things out further.  Also, those places that can successfully fill stadiums, but still have almost zero fan interest (I’m thinking of all the undeserving hockey cities south of the Mason-Dixon Line) will be exposed by their nonexistent television ratings.

In Field of Dreams, Kevin Costner’s character keeps hearing “If you build it, he will come.”  Similarly, when teams win, the fans will come.  That is only natural.  It is the fans that come even when the team is not winning that deserve recognition.  Like Costner staring at his baseball field all year waiting for “them” to come, the fans watching and waiting for their perpetually bad teams to finally turn it around will receive the greatest reward when it does happen.  By that time, they will not need Sporting News to tell them which city is the best.